Sunday 30 August 2015

Apples, Oranges and Potatoes … and the demographics of Westeros

Warning: This is going to be about math. Not real math, mind you. Numbers is more like it. The math a humanities mind is capable of. I want to have a look at the demographics of Westeros in this little essay. Are they accurate? And what do they tell us? According to Elio Garcia, there are 40 million people living in Westeros.[i] From the length of the Wall[ii] we also know that Westeros is roughly 3,000 miles long and up to 900 miles wide (not counting the lands beyond the Wall, that is).
The Holy Roman Empire of the Staufer is, it seems to me, the best historical comparison, despite being much smaller with a length of under 1,300 miles and a width of up to about 700 miles. Keeping in mind that Westeros also has very few “thin” areas, like the neck, we can very, very roughly say that the Seven Kingdoms are probably about four or five times as large as the Holy Roman Empire of the first half of the 13th century. The Holy Roman Empire might have been home to about 20 million people, half the population of Westeros.
In terms of towns and cities, however, the differences are even more pronounced. King’s Landing is the most populous city of the Seven Kingdoms with about 500,000 inhabitants. There are four other cities whose size we can only guess, but it seems reasonable to assume that White Harbor cannot have more inhabitants than 100,000, probably much less. Oldtown, Lannistport and Gulltown should be somewhere in between. The Holy Roman Empire, on the other hand, cannot boast any city even remotely close to the size of King’s Landing.
Further available data includes the number of warriors the respective Westerosi kingdoms are able to field in times of war. According to semi-canon sources, the Reach is at 80,000 to 100,000,[iii] Dorne and the Westerlands at 50,000 each,[iv] the Vale, the North and the Riverlands at 45,000 each,[v] the Stormlands at 30,000,[vi] the Iron Islands at 20,000,[vii] and the Crownlands at 10,000 to 15,000.[viii] These numbers might very well be off in the tens of thousands, but that is fine for now. The numbers add up to an impressive 400,000 combatants. Needless to say, no Holy Roman Emperor has ever fielded an army that large, yet, neither has a King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men. To put that into context: That’s about five times the men that are thought to have fought on the Catalaunian Plains (on both sides combined)[ix] or as many men as at Alesia according to the wildest of guesses. It is reasonable, however, to assume that no ruler of the Seven Kingdoms could hope to command more than 200,000 men, should he happen to face an outside enemy. What we do know is that up to 80,000 fought at the Battle of the Trident,[x] which were by no means as many as would have been at the disposal of a king preparing to fight an outside force.
However, even 10,000 is a number that few mediaeval armies seem to ever have reached. Robb’s 20,000 men[xi] are more than Friedrich II of Hohenstaufen has ever had at his disposal in any one battle. Even over 300 years later at the battle of Lepanto, the whole Holy League, consisting of the Pope, the Habsburgs, Genoa, Venice and others, could throw no more than 70,000 – including sailors and oarsmen – at Sufi Ali Pasha’s fleet.[xii]
If we compare those numbers we cannot ignore that the ratio of inhabitants to combatants is quite different for the Seven Kingdoms and the Holy Roman Empire, no matter how we look at it. There is about one combatant for every two hundred people in the Seven Kingdoms (assuming the 200,000 above accurate), but only one combatant for every four hundred people in the Holy Roman Empire (giving the emperor a whopping 50,000 men, which is probably too high in the first place).
What’s even more curious is the huge difference in the distribution of population density. During the Middle Ages about a quarter of the population of the Holy Roman Empire lived in towns and cities. There were roughly 3000 towns and cities the most of which were towns between 5,000 and 10,000 inhabitants. We would, of course, assume that a quarter of the Westerosi population also lives in cities which equals 10 million city-dwellers. As many as 5 percent of these live in King’s Landing and probably about 10 percent in the five cities of Westeros combined. Milan (closely followed by Florence and others), the largest city of the Holy Roman Empire during the High Middle Ages, on the other hand, only had about 100,000 inhabitants, which is only 2 percent. Also there is generally a much smaller number of inhabitants per square mile in Westeros, not even half as high as for the Holy Roman Empire – a stark contrast to the behemoth of a city that is King’s Landing.
The inevitable question here is: Can Westeros actually support a city with half a million inhabitants? The maximum size of a city is always linked to the available surplus of food and not even Constantinople reached that size during the Middle Ages, it seems. And we have to take one more thing into account: climate. Would the long Westerosi winters not completely starve such a huge city? A city of that size is a food political nightmare as it is, but to stock up for a decade of winter is inconceivable. Even thirty years of summer would hardly be enough to get the numbers up again. The same problem arises concerning the strength of the military forces. While the greater number of people in Westeros accounts for a somewhat greater maximum size of an army (albeit not proportionally), the need to stock up for winter should at least negate the effect, if not reverse it, because more people would have been needed in order to produce and stock up on food at all times.
So what is the solution to this dilemma? Is this simply GRRM taking his liberties as a writer of fantasy? Is it a mistake? Not necessarily, actually. Westeros can boast a couple of things that the Holy Roman Empire of the High Middle Ages lacked: squash, pumpkin and especially corn. The variety of Westerosi foods includes several items that were unknown in “pre-Columbian Europe”. Turkey is also one of them, while potatoes and tomatoes are missing. A greater variety of foods provides a good chance for more crisis-proof and more effective farming. Corn is especially relevant in that context, while the apparent absence of potatoes prohibits an even greater effect. After all, while the comparison is not completely fair, Tenochtitlan, the capital of the Aztecs, reached a population of 150,000 to 300,000,[xiii] which comes relatively close to the size of King’s Landing – with no horses and no steel.
The second part of the answer is probably the sexier part: dragons. Why are dragons important here? Can one butcher them for healthy, nourishing food that feeds a family for a year or two? Well, probably, but that’s not the point, of course. Dragons are what created King’s Landing and Dragons are what makes King’s Landing possible in the first place. King’s Landing bears its name for a reason. When Aegon arrived at the spot, people flocked to him and turned what started out as the Aegonfort into a veritable city over the years. The dragons are the reason why they came, because dragons were what turned Aegon Targaryen into Aegon the Conqueror, but the dragons are also the reason why they stayed and could stay, because only a very strong central power could hope to create such a huge surplus of food as was needed and direct it to the soon-to-be capital.
This very strong central power can also help to explain the vast number of soldiers a Targaryen king would have had at his disposal. There are pretty much no attempts to overthrow a Targaryen monarch from the outside while there were still Targaryen dragon around. Only after that rebellions led by non-Targaryens occurred, beginning with semi-Targaryens: the Blackfyre pretenders. Later came wannabe semi-Targaryens: Lyonel Baratheon – in his own way – and later Robert Baratheon. The power of the dragons has been felt for generations after the death of the actual animals. A non-Targaryen king was unthinkable for quite a while, a luxury the Staufer didn’t have. A Targaryen king could hope to lead a much larger amount of the total number of available soldiers of his realm into battle than a Staufer emperor, because the balance of power between a Staufer emperor and his lieges is a lot less one-sided than that between a Targaryen king and his bannermen. The most important reason for this are the dragons. Their superior mobility and “firepower” tips the scales.
We don’t really know yet if the dragons do more than that. There has been speculation about a sleeping dragon keeping Winterfell’s hot springs hot. We know little and less about how the people of Westeros usually survive its long winters. It doesn’t seem completely inconceivable that dragons could play or have played a part in helping especially King’s Landing to make it through winter, probably along with the Alchemists’ Guild.


[i] For Elio Garcia’s estimate see his video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0fognZ-tgU. Also very interesting is this article that refers to the same video: http://www.dailydot.com/geek/game-of-thrones-westeros-mapped/.
[iii] A Game of Thrones RPS. Limited Edition, p. 383.
[iv] A Game of Thrones RPS. Limited Edition, p. 381, 387.
[v] A Game of Thrones RPS. Limited Edition, p. 365, 373, 376.
[vi] A Game of Thrones RPS. Limited Edition, p. 385.
[vii] A Game of Thrones RPS. Limited Edition, p. 372.
[viii] A Game of Thrones RPS. Limited Edition, p. 359.
[ix] E.A. Thompson: The Huns, p. 300.
[xi] A Game of Thrones RPS. Limited Edition, p. 365. See also A Game of Thrones, Chapters 53 and 55.
[xii] Stevens/Westcott: A History of Sea Power, p. 66-69.
[xiii] Prem: Die Azteken, p. 29.